How Seasonal Trends Affect Shopify Ad Spend

If you're running a Shopify store, you’ve probably noticed that ad performance doesn’t look the same all year round. One month your ROAS is solid, and the next, you’re questioning your entire strategy. That’s not just bad luck—it’s seasonal trends at work.

From holiday spikes to post-peak slumps, the time of year plays a big role in how your ads perform and how much they cost. In this post, we’re breaking down how seasonal changes impact Shopify ad spend and how you can adjust your strategy to make the most of every season.

Here's a quick breakdown:

• Ad Costs Fluctuate: Costs spike during high-demand periods like Black Friday and drop in slower months like January.
• Customer Behavior Changes: Shopping habits shift with the seasons - holiday gifts dominate winter, while outdoor gear shines in summer.
• Data-Driven Decisions: Use Shopify Analytics to track your store's performance and adjust ad budgets accordingly.
• Seasonal Campaign Timing: Launch campaigns in phases - build awareness early, increase spend before peaks, and scale back after.

• Key Metrics to Monitor: Focus on metrics like ROAS, CTR, and CAC to measure success and refine strategies.

Seasonal Patterns in Online Shopping

Major Shopping Events

The retail calendar is packed with events that heavily impact both ad costs and consumer habits—something that's so important to stay on top of and ahead with, so you don't fall behind!

Some of the biggest ones include Black Friday, Cyber Monday, the Holiday Season, Back to School, Valentine's Day, and Mother's Day. These dates play a huge role in shaping how businesses plan their advertising throughout the year.

Shopping Behavior by Season

Consumer habits shift notably with the seasons, directly influencing how effective ads can be. For example, during summer, products meant for indoor or winter use tend to get less attention, while items for outdoor activities and travel see a spike in interest.

Holiday shopping now starts earlier than it used to, stretching the buying season. In spring, shoppers focus on home improvement and outdoor living items, while fall becomes a prime time for fashion and electronics. These shifts in behavior directly influence when and how businesses should advertise.

Ad Cost Changes by Season

Ad costs also fluctuate throughout the year. Fall and winter, especially during major shopping events, see a rise in ad rates due to heightened competition. On the flip side, January and February typically bring lower ad costs, making it a great time to test new campaigns or focus on building brand awareness.

Summer tends to have steadier ad costs, offering a chance to keep campaigns consistent and try out creative marketing approaches. These seasonal trends are key for making smart budgeting and campaign timing decisions.

Using Your Store's Past Data

Finding Your Best and Worst Months

Dive into Shopify Analytics to uncover seasonal patterns in your store's performance. Look at monthly revenue and order volume from the past year, paying attention to:

• Sales speed: See how fast products sell during different months.
• Average order value (AOV): Track how basket sizes shift throughout the year.
• Product category trends: Identify which items sell more or less depending on the season.

For instance, if your store specializes in seasonal sportswear, winter gear might see a spike in October–November, while summer gear could peak in March–April. After this, review past ad performance to refine your seasonal approach further.

Previous Ad Results

Shopify's Marketing Analytics can help you evaluate how well your ads performed during different seasons. Focus on these key metrics:

For a breakdown of all abbreviations mentioned in this post, read here.

Look for patterns in how your ad creatives perform seasonally. For example, holiday-themed ads might generate more clicks in November-December, while spring promotions could see better results in March. These insights will help you understand how your Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) changes over time.

Customer Acquisition Cost Trends

Use your store's performance data and ad results to analyze how CAC varies throughout the year. Shopify's tools can help you track:

• Monthly CAC changes: Compare costs during different seasons.
• Platform-specific costs: Determine which ad channels are most cost-effective at various times.
• Campaign effectiveness: Evaluate how seasonal campaigns perform.

CAC often increases during busy shopping periods like Black Friday but tends to drop during slower months like February. Use this data to adjust your ad budget. For example, during high-CAC periods, you might focus on retaining current customers rather than spending heavily on new customer acquisition.

To stay on top of these trends, create a monthly benchmark report. Over time, this data will allow you to make smarter decisions about seasonal strategies and ad spend allocation.

Setting Seasonal Ad Budgets

Planning for Peak Seasons

To make the most of peak seasons, start by analyzing historical data to pinpoint when and where your ad spend delivers the best results. Use a phased approach - gradually increasing your budget as the season approaches, maximizing it during the high-demand period, and scaling back strategically afterward. This ensures your budget aligns with customer demand and delivers strong returns. During slower times, adjust your strategy to keep growth steady without overspending.

Managing Budgets in the Off-Season

Instead of cutting your ad spend entirely during the off-season, redirect funds toward experimenting with new audiences and refining your targeting. Keeping a consistent baseline budget ensures your brand remains visible while collecting valuable data for future campaigns. Focus on your top-performing ad sets, strengthen retargeting efforts, and allocate smaller budgets to test untapped audience segments.

Balancing Year-Round and Seasonal Campaigns

Pair seasonal campaigns with a year-round core campaign to maintain brand visibility. This strategy combines consistent brand recognition with targeted efforts during peak seasons, helping you capitalize on high-demand periods while keeping your brand in front of customers year-round. Together, these efforts drive immediate sales during peaks and build long-term growth.

Creating Seasonal Ad Campaigns

Using insights from your performance data and budget planning, it's time to create campaigns that align with seasonal trends and maximize their impact.

Seasonal Ad Design

Design ads that reflect the season with visuals and messages your audience connects with. For winter campaigns, use festive tones like deep reds and greens. In summer, go for bright, lively colors that bring to mind sunshine and outdoor fun.

Focus on features that fit the season - like cozy indoor products in winter or outdoor-friendly items in summer. Highlight limited-time offers to create urgency.

Seasonal Search Terms

Start tracking keyword trends 3-4 months ahead of the season. Tools like Google Trends can help you spot rising search terms and fine-tune your keyword strategy.

Here’s a breakdown of how search terms shift during the year:

Once you’ve chosen your keywords, the next step is timing your campaign launch effectively.

Campaign Launch Timing

Break your campaign into phases to build momentum and maximize results:

1. Awareness Phase: Start 4-6 weeks before the season with broad targeting and educational content about your seasonal offerings. Use this time to test ad variations and gather data.
2. Engagement Phase: Launch your main promotional push 2-3 weeks before the season’s peak. Gradually increase ad spend, focusing on the top-performing ads.
3. Peak Season Push: During the peak, allocate most of your budget to the best-performing campaigns. Keep a close eye on performance and adjust in real time to make the most of the high-demand period.

Tracking Seasonal Campaign Results

Once your seasonal campaigns are live, keeping an eye on their performance is crucial.

Key Metrics to Monitor

Here are some essential metrics to help you measure how well your seasonal campaigns are doing:

Check these metrics daily during peak times and weekly during slower periods. Adjust your strategy as CAC and other metrics shift.

Testing Seasonal Ads

Start testing your ads a few weeks before the season kicks off. Here’s how:

• Ad Creative Testing
  Run multiple versions of your ads at the same time. Change one element per test - such as seasonal visuals, offers, call-to-action phrases, or the length of the ad copy - to see what works best.
• Audience Targeting
  Set up separate ad groups for different audience types. Focus on past seasonal customers, look-alike audiences, interest-based groups, and specific geographic regions.
• Budget Distribution
  Spread your testing budget across different time slots based on when your audience is most active. Invest more during peak shopping hours to gather meaningful insights.

Learning from Campaign Results

Keep detailed logs of your campaign outcomes to improve future efforts. Here's an example of how to organize your findings:

Use these insights to fine-tune your budget allocation and campaign timing for future seasons.

Conclusion

Let’s be real—Shopify ad spend can feel like a moving target. One month your numbers look great, and the next you’re wondering if your audience disappeared. That’s not your campaign falling apart; it’s just how seasonal shifts work. People shop differently throughout the year, and that ripple effect shows up in everything from your click-through rate to how much you’re paying per conversion. Understanding those patterns makes it a lot easier to stop guessing and start planning.